Redistricting 2011: Iowa & Ohio

Episode 3 in my series of diaries mapping out possible redistricting scenarios in the states is here! On the agenda today: Iowa and Ohio.

Previously covered:

Diary 1: Massachusetts and Texas

Diary 2: Michigan and Nevada

Again, the obligatory grain of salt alert: my districts are based on county estimates from 2007 which are due to be adjusted soon with 2008 numbers. Also, I am using projected seat totals that are equally subject to change.

Much geekdom, nerdiness, and dorkery lies below the fold…

Iowa

The redistricting process in Iowa should be among the least contentious in the nation, with an independent commission redrawing the lines. Of course, Iowa is expected to lose a seat in reapportionment, bringing its total down to four (for a Midwestern state that once had 11 districts, it is quite a sobering development to now be on par with Nevada, Utah, and Kansas in population). Mapmakers last had to eliminate a seat after the 1990 Census, and back then they opted to pit freshman Republican Rep. Jim Nussle against Democratic Rep. Dave Nagle in a competitive eastern Iowa district. It is widely assumed that their solution this round will be a race between Dem Leonard Boswell of Des Moines and Republican Tom Latham of Ames, and my map reflects that conventional wisdom. The new 3rd District, home to both incumbents, would likely have voted for Obama by a respectable, if modest, margin, but in a race between two entrenched incumbents would be a tossup. Given Latham’s proven ability to win easily in a slightly Dem-leaning district, he might even be favored against Boswell, who has had some close calls in the past and will be 78 years old in 2012.

As for the other three incumbents, they should be relatively comfortable. Note that all 99 counties are kept whole, as the commission has long strived to avoid county-splitting.

Iowa

District 1 – Bruce Braley (D-Waterloo) — district expands in area but stays Democratic-leaning, as would any northeastern Iowa seat.

District 2 – Dave Loebsack (D-Mount Vernon) — but this district still stays an inch more Democratic.

District 3 – Leonard Boswell (D-Des Moines) vs. Tom Latham (R-Ames) — competitive seat, probably voted for Obama by a 7-to-10-point margin, but would be a tossup in most election years. Both Reps. retain their geographical base, but Latham probably has a stronger record of winning over tough territory.

District 4 – Steve King (R-Kiron) — stays the most Republican district, by far.

Iowa was probably the easiest state I’ve yet tinkered with, as counties were kept whole and the independent commission system means that I was able to suspend political considerations to some degree. I really think the final map will not look radically different than the above.

Ohio

This was tough, to say the least, but I feel that I succeeded. I assumed a continued power split in the state; currently, Democrats have the governor’s mansion (under Gov. Ted Strickland) and a 53-46 majority in the state House, while Republicans rule the Senate 21-12. I cannot imagine Democrats winning the Senate in 2010, but the threat of a GOP gerrymander redux is real. Still, odds are against the Republicans winning both the governor’s mansion and House in one election cycle, so for now the smart money is on split redistricting control in 2011-2012. What made Ohio particularly difficult is that the Buckeye State’s is, to date, the only delegation projected to lose two seats in Congress. Even New York is only expected to lose one at this point.

Should migration patterns change in the next year, it is of course possible for Ohio to salvage one of those two seats…but most seem to believe that demographic momentum is still running against the Rust Belt. So presuming a two-seat loss in Ohio, and split power in the remap, the obvious solution is to eliminate one Democrat and one Republican.

Finding population loss in a Democratic area was easy (northeast Ohio, especially in the Cleveland area, has been hemorrhaging population for longer than most of us can remember). I settled on Dennis Kucinich as the member of Congress most likely to face a fellow incumbent, given negative growth in Cuyahoga County, VRA-implied protection of Marcia Fudge, and the improbability of Tim Ryan’s 17th District being messed with for the second decade in a row. Under my map, he would face Betty Sutton in a district whose geography might favor Sutton but would at least give Kucinich a decent shot. Voters would choose between Kucinich’s seniority and visibility, and Sutton’s plum Rules Committee assignment and reportedly good relationship with the Speaker and party leadership.

Choosing a Republican was more difficult; nowhere else in the state are population shifts particularly robust or especially dismal. I decided that a relative newcomer would be a likely choice for elimination, especially if forced against someone with more clout. Knowing that Minority Leader John Boehner simply cannot realistically be messed with, I put current freshman Steve Austria in the same seat as Mike Turner. In a hypothetical primary fight in such a district, anyone’s money would be on Turner, whose Montgomery County base would be kept intact and who would have more seniority and a sweet Appropriations Committee spot to tout.

I tried to protect the other 14 incumbents, since that is typically what comes of bipartisan redistricting plans. There was no way to give Zack Space a Democratic-leaning district without harming John Boccieri, whose seat I assumed was a must-protect, but I managed to give everyone something about which they could breathe more easily. You may particularly like what I did with Columbus. Here’s the map:

Ohio

District 1 – Steve Driehaus (D-Cincinnati) — comprises all the Democratic parts of Hamilton County.

District 2 – Jean Schmidt (R-Miami Township) — knowing her history of closer-than-they-should-be electoral victories, I took out historically industrial and Democratic areas in the east and gave them to Zack Space and Charlie Wilson (where they seem to belong). Now she would represent an even more heavily Republican, decidedly suburban and exurban, district.

District 3 – Mike Turner (R-Dayton) vs. Steve Austria (R-Beavercreek) — do you dig its compactness as much as I do? While Dayton leans Democratic, Fayette and Greene Counties more than cancel it out to make this a Republican seat. By the way, other than Austria’s home being in the district, he would have nothing to like about this fight. Turner’s Montgomery County base is 99% in-district, and like I said, he has a new Appropriations seat to crow about. If I were Austria, I’d move and challenge Space, or possibly seek higher office. Tough break, but newbies usually draw the short straw when seats must be cut out.

District 4 – Jim Jordan (R-Urbana) — expands in area, stays safely GOP.

District 5 – Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green) — now stretches all the way to Medina County because of lagging population growth, but should stay strongly GOP-leaning.

District 6 – Charlie Wilson (D-St. Clairsville) — still a socially conservative, working class and traditionally Democratic seat.

District 7 – John Boehner (R-West Chester) — it meanders a bit, but remains safely Republican. The esteemed Minority Leader would demand nothing less.

District 8 – Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) — as labor-friendly, Democratic, and Toledo-heavy as ever.

District 9 – Dennis Kucinich (D-Cleveland) vs. Betty Sutton (D-Copley) — this is really a definitive industrial northern Ohio district. Its largest population anchor is Summit County (Akron), of which it covers 59%. Following that is 13% of Cuyahoga (Cleveland), 48% of Lorain, and 49% of Medina. The bulk of the district is Sutton territory, but Kucinich’s name recognition and reputation as a liberal firebrand might ignite enthusiasm in such a primary battle. An aside: I know that some Kossacks will hate me for putting Kucinich in this spot, but something in the Cleveland area had to give, and like I said, it couldn’t exactly be VRA-protected Marcia Fudge or Tim Ryan, whose seat was cobbled together in 2002 due to a plan that eliminated Jim Traficant.

District 10 – Marcia Fudge (D-Warrensville Heights) — 55% of Cuyahoga County, still majority-black and the most Democratic district in the state.

District 11 – Pat Tiberi (R-Columbus) — I served both Columbus Congresscritters’ interests here in what is, I think, my most effective turf-splitting in the state. Tiberi keeps his home in-district but now has the conservative suburbs to himself. Unlike before, I sincerely doubt his new district would have voted for Obama.

District 12 – Steve LaTourette (R-Bainbridge Township) — by dropping Portage and Trumbull Counties, it gets slightly more Republican, but still encroaches on 22% of Cuyahoga County, not exactly a boon for a GOPer. With a strong base in competitive Lake County, LaTourette should be fine.

District 13 – Mary Jo Kilroy (D-Columbus) — now contained entirely within Democratic-leaning Franklin County, in a district that should have voted Obama by double digits. See, Kilroy and Tiberi can both win from a good gerrymander!

District 14 – John Boccieri (D-Alliance) — hoping to help Space a little bit, I gave Boccieri heavily Republican Holmes County and cut out a small portion of Stark County (Canton), but to avoid endangering Boccieri, he gets a healthy 35% of strongly Democratic Summit.

District 15 – Tim Ryan (D-Niles) — if it could possibly be more Democratic, it now is, even if by accident.

District 16 – Zack Space (D-Dover) — if there is one major flaw in my map it is that I could not quite figure out how to protect Space. That’s because, in the end, this part of Ohio is tough for any Democrat, so if Space can continue to hold it easily, that is to his credit. There just wasn’t a way that I saw (and perhaps actual Ohioans could have found one) to help him significantly without hurting Boccieri, Kilroy, or Wilson, all of whom represent relatively competitive districts that were designed without their interests in mind. When all is said and done, Space should be fine, but a future Democrat may still have trouble in this district.

In general, I feel that Ohio was one of my more successful endeavors. I believe I avoided embarrassing mistakes of inexperience such as those in my maps for Massachusetts (I thought keeping counties intact was a good move toward cleaner lines, while New Englanders tell me that splitting towns is a far greater sin in that neck of the woods) and Michigan (I intended to force Mike Rogers against Mark Schauer but seem to have put him with Thad McCotter instead). I also protected most, if not all, of the incumbents, and yet managed to keep the map from looking crazily gerrymandered.

Of course, my usual soapbox line still applies: it would be far better if all states used nonpartisan redistricting like Arizona, Iowa, Washington, and other locales already do. Nonpartisan redistricting at its best doesn’t ensure competitive elections, but it keeps the boundaries within the realm of logic, and doesn’t value incumbency for incumbency’s sake; rather, it stresses more practical concerns of political categorizing such as communities of interest and pure geography. Florida is considering a redistricting reform initiative in 2010, and here’s hoping it reaches the necessary 60% (though I won’t yet hold my breath). In the mean time, the system we have is the system we must work with.

Episode 4: Georgia and New Jersey

Episode 5: Florida and Louisiana

Episode 6: Pennsylvania and Utah

Episode 7: Arizona and New York

32 thoughts on “Redistricting 2011: Iowa & Ohio”

  1. The redistricting process in Ohio is not exactly how you describe it. There are five seatS:

    1. Governor

    2. SoS

    3. Auditor

    4. a member selected by party that controls the House

    5. a member selected by party that is in the House minority

    So the composition of the state legislature does NOT matter. All that matters is who holds Gov, SoS and Auditor. Currently, Dems have an edge there so they would be able to control the process if nothing changes. But the SoS seat will be open, and everything will depend on that.

  2. Districts 3,5 and 7 are contiguous and are all in red, so the district borders cannot be seen.

    Also, districts 6 and 15 blend together since they are both in blue.  

  3. I think for both states these are very reasonable, rational suggested districts — maybe a state government somewhere would want to hire you.

    One “quibble” — Congresswoman Stephanie Tubbs Jones died last year, and the district is now represented by Marcia Fudge.

  4. how Democratic a district based around Dayton would be?  Your map plus the current one seems to the cut that metro in half or so so as not to make a Dem seat centered around it.

    And now that we’ve won OH-1, I imagine they’ll make it a safe D seat by putting all of Cincinatti into one cd.

  5. Republicans lost Iowa to Gore (barely) in 2000 but won it by IIRC 8,000 in 2004.  In 2004, registered Republicans outnumbered Registered Democrats by 5,000 (610,000 to 605,000).

    Since then, the Democrats have been gaining ground.  Like the state legislature (they control both Houses), two House seats, and winning the state at the Presidential level.  They kept the Governorship winning IIRC by 100,000 votes.  Democrats now lead comfortably in registration by 706,840 to 595,621.  

    Your map is very compactespecially for the one district in play.  I would not be surprised to have a redistricting in Iowa that leaves two safe Democratic seats, a lean D seat and a safe Republican seat.  The Des Moines Register had stump sppeeches in 2006 from the Congressional candidates on its web site.  Boswell looks his age and more.  Iowa is older than the national figures but Boswell is pretty weak.  A younger, more energetic candidate would have a better chance against Latham.

    We could solve the problem, of course, by beating Latham like a drum in 2010.  Candidates do make a difference.  Selden Spencer ran about 3 or 4 points better in 2006 than Becky Greenwald (43% vs. 39% IIRC).  Latham beat Spencer by 30,000 votes in an off year election and beat Greenwald by 65,000 votes.  He was a dynamic candidate with a great stump speech.

  6. for Space. Leave Holmes county in the 14th, but dump the southern end of the district into the 6th and 3rd, take in the norhern end of the 6th and a section of Tim Ryan’s heavily Democratic district.

    Getting the southern end of Mahoning County would go a long way.

    In fact what I do is get rid of Schmidt. I think Republicans would jump on that to get rid of the controversial and perenially vulnerable congresswoman. I think it would Austria versus Smith in a new 2nd that takes in more of the 6th while the third takes in the northern end of your current district. Then, like I suggested, Mahoning County and part of the northern end of the 6th into Space’s district.

  8. I assume you’re going to draw maps by using who will likely control the process?

    Looks like FL, GA and UT will be controlled by Republicans.  While NJ, LA, AZ and PA incumbent protection maps and New York Democratic controlled.

  9. how you are deciding which states to do.  Are you mainly choosing states that are gaining or losing seats?

    Anyway, I’d be interested to see Minnesota, Missouri, and Illinois at some point, which are all supposed to lose a seat, though they’re all right on the borderline.  

    My home state of Wisconsin could also get interesting if one party controls both houses of the legislature and the governor’s mansion.  That hasn’t happened during the two year term in which redistricting occurs since the 1950’s.  But it could happen this year if the Democrats retain control of both houses and re-elect Doyle.  (I suppose it could happen for the GOP if the Dems choke big time and the GOP takes over all three in 2010 as well.)  

  10. The legis has the opportunity to reject the first and second maps for both the US House and their own internal IA House/Senate districts and providing the Dems hold the IA House, they should consider doing exactly that.  

    The maps arent done by an independent commission, they are prepared by the mostly independent Legislative Service Bureau, that like the Legislative Fiscal Bureau, are service arms of the legis and are mostly independent of politics above the individual employees own habits.

    Rejecting both the first and second maps would have a negative press reaction by injecting politics into a process that appears nonpolitical, but if thats what it takes to expand our majorities, so be it… it isnt the same as the (unconstitutional) Texas/Georgia Republican middecennial redistricting.

  11. It would be interesting to reconstitute a PVI for this proposed district… King’s seat was only about R+7 and as redrawn here, including greater portions of central Iowa, Ft Dodge, Algona, Mason City area, etc… and a fair amount of old school catholic democrat vote, I would tend to think would shave a few, 2-3 points less Republican.  

  15. These are the 2 underperformers in the state and as such any compromise will likely result in these 2 getting cut.

    Also, you seemed to try and go out of your way to protect Space and then handed Boccieri a tougher map. The portion of Summit you gave him is split pretty evenly between Dem and Rep. He’s a rising star in the state party and shouldn’t be discounted.

    Also, Medina County is growing rapidly and its unlikely they will take kindly to being repped by someone from as far west as Bowling Green. There was already a minor uproar when they got lumped in with Canton in the 16th.  

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